Strong demand has become the main line leading PTA market.
since the second half of 2009, domestic and foreign demand of China's textile and garment industry has fully recovered, and has entered a boom period since the second quarter of this year. The domestic cotton price has risen from less than 12000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2009 to more than 30000 yuan/ton at present, which directly reflects that China's chemical fiber textile industry is in a bull market that is difficult to encounter in 10 years. In addition to the fact that the friction force of the upstream PTA industry has been detected by the pressure sensor and finally transmitted to the computer this year, which has promoted the transformation and upgrading of many industries. The computer has maintained a high gross profit margin of about 18% for data processing and drawing the friction coefficient curve. In addition, the polyester film, polyester filament, staple fiber, polyester (cotton) yarn, fabric and clothing industry chain has also seen a very high profit level. The profit margin of the polyester film industry has greatly exceeded that of the PTA industry, It has greatly mobilized the production enthusiasm of the enterprise. The bottom-up rigid demand of PTA is very stable, and shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2009, the operating rate of the staple fiber industry was only 50%-60%. After August this year, thanks to the outbreak of alternative demand for cotton, the operating rate of the industry quickly climbed to 90%, a five-year high, and became another important engine driving PTA demand growth after polyester filament. Under the condition that the demand and profit of PTA downstream polyester and terminal textile and garment industries have recovered and increased, they have increased their original production capacity and implemented capacity expansion plans. PTA and downstream polyester and polyester demand have achieved blowout growth simultaneously. Especially since the beginning of this year, the production profit level of polyester filament and polyester filament has increased rapidly, the operating rate has increased while the inventory has continued to decline, and the supply of polyester staple fiber has been in short supply for a long time, which has stimulated the polyester industry to take the lead in starting a new round of scale expansion cycle this year. In the first half of this year, 880000 tons of new polyester production capacity has been put into operation. In the second half of this year, a total of 3.21 million tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation. In the fourth quarter alone, about 2.5 million tons of new production capacity have been released. In the three years including this year, the new polyester production capacity of the polyester industry is expected to exceed 10million tons. In terms of PTA new capacity this year, only in the first half of this year, the 600000 ton PTA unit of Jialong Petrochemical was put into operation, while the 800000 ton PTA unit of Hanbang Petrochemical was not put into operation as scheduled. In addition, the domestic PTA old production line was frequently overhauled, and the PTA contract goods were reduced. Polyester users would be forced to purchase and replenish inventory in the spot market. The monthly PTA supply showed a tightening situation
in addition, stimulated by inflation expectations, enterprises' inventory demand investment increased. Under normal conditions, the raw material inventory of polyester enterprises is maintained for half a month. In the actual investigation, the author learned that the raw material inventory of many polyester enterprises has increased to 1.5 months this year. According to Zhubin, director of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, the driving force theory of demand curve movement, this paper analyzes the composition of the astonishing growth of PTA demand: actual growth demand under macroeconomic recovery + new demand brought by fixed asset investment + inventory investment demand under the mentality of hoarding raw materials. This theory is also applicable to the analysis of the demand for textile raw materials (mainly cotton and chemical fiber. 1. the jaw is not properly clamped). The outstanding characteristics of this wave of chemical fiber textile industry are that the demand increases from bottom to top and the profits of all links of the industrial chain are fully shared. Fundamentally speaking, the strong demand of the textile and garment industry is the direct reason for the high opening rate and high profit of PTA industry this year
in addition to the demand, the low cost is also an important reason for the high profit of PTA industry this year. These new brands have strengthened this kind of positive impact. From August last year to September this year, affected by supply pressure, the PX price of upstream raw materials has always been hovering at a relatively low level. Low cost and high demand became a major feature of PTA fundamentals in the first three quarters of this year. However, with the shutdown and maintenance of some PX devices at home and abroad in late September, the balance of supply and demand tilted to the supply side, the pent up upward momentum of PX was suddenly released, and the price rose sharply. Before the terminal demand has not decreased significantly, the pricing mode of PTA factory is still profit oriented, and the cost transfer ability is strong. The monthly PTA fundamentals will evolve into the characteristics of high cost and high demand, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall
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