The hottest natural gas heavy truck fell by 54 in

2022-07-29
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The natural gas heavy truck fell by 54% in the previous July, further expanding the decline

hot summer and the off-season. In July this year, the domestic commercial vehicle market sold 234400 vehicles in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94%; The heavy truck market sold 37200 vehicles in July, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%

so, is there any market segment worse and weaker than this

yes. Single fuel natural gas heavy truck

recently, it was learned that in July, the domestic natural gas truck market output was only 1110 (according to the statistics of the certificate data of the Ministry of industry and information technology), a significant decrease of 68.8% compared with the same period last year, and the monthly decline in July is further expanding compared with the 33.2% year-on-year decline in June. Moreover, the performance of the natural gas truck market in July was not ideal, which also led to the expansion of the cumulative decline. In June, the cumulative output of the natural gas truck market was 10445, down 54% from 22585 in the same period last year, and an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the 50.9% drop in the same period last year. The overall market situation is worrying

there is no hope for the recovery of natural gas trucks throughout the year.

overall, compared with the first half of the year, the reasons for the sharp decline in the natural gas truck market have basically not changed, including three aspects

first, it was dragged down by the overall depression of the heavy truck market. In July, the heavy truck market sold 37200 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%; The monthly cumulative sales were 332700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%. The downstream industry chain of the heavy truck market is in a mess. Under such an extremely unfavorable demand environment, the macro-economy continues to slow down, the fixed asset investment remains sluggish, the road logistics market is very depressed, and the mineral resources output is negative year-on-year every month, the natural gas truck market is really difficult to excel

second, the oil price has been lowered continuously, the price of natural gas for vehicles has been relatively stable, and the price difference between gas and diesel has been shrinking, which has temporarily lost the advantage of natural gas trucks. From September 2014 to August 2015, the domestic oil price has been adjusted 20 times, with only 5 times of increase and 15 times of decrease. On August 5, the oil price was lowered again. The national development and Reform Commission announced that gasoline and diesel oil were reduced by 220 yuan and 215 yuan per ton respectively. The price of No. 0 diesel oil in Beijing dropped to 5.74 yuan/liter, down 0.19 yuan/liter from 5.93 yuan/liter in the previous round of reduction (July 22). In addition, during the week from August 10 to August 14, the global crude oil price fell sharply, among which the U.S. crude oil price dropped from $45.31/barrel to $41.73/barrel, a new low in six and a half years. Many fundamental news about crude oil in the week were all bad, so it is difficult to find factors that are good for oil prices. Among them, the situation of excess supply of crude oil remains; Crude oil inventory fell less than expected; Worries about the slowdown of China's economy and the reduction of crude oil demand; Crude oil refinery failures are putting pressure on oil prices

it can be said that the continuous decline of the global crude oil price basically made the natural gas truck lose the hope of recovery in 2015

third, the downturn of mineral economy. A large part of natural gas trucks are used for coal transportation. However, the coal market is still in mournful mood in the first half of this year. According to the China Energy News, the coal price fell sharply in the first half of this year, continuing the sharp decline in the national coal price in the past three years, in which the price of power coal fell by about 100 yuan/ton per year. The price of 5500 kcal of underground coal in Qinhuangdao Port decreased from 780 yuan/ton in May 2012 to the level pushing disadvantage in July this year (yuan/ton, which was the 15th largest in size, dropped by 47%. This year alone, it fell by 110 yuan/ton, which has dropped to the low level in the past 10 years. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the slowdown in coal demand in the first half of the year, the difficulty in digesting excess capacity, the increase in the difficulty in controlling the total amount of coal, and the decline in international energy prices, the coal economy has taken a sharp turn: production and sales have declined, shipment volumes have decreased, inventories have remained high, and prices have continued to fall again, followed by a decline in the industry The benefits of the industry fell sharply, and the losses of enterprises further expanded

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in this environment, most customers' existing vehicles are in the state of shutdown or semi shutdown, let alone spending money on new cars. It is natural that the sales of natural gas trucks used for coal transportation are difficult

there is no major turbulence in the pattern of "one super and many strong companies"

from the perspective of competition pattern, the natural gas truck market has not changed significantly in recent months, and continues to show a situation of "one super and many strong companies"

In the month of

, the same kind of hydraulic oil can be properly added in case of lack of oil in the accumulated production days of Shaanxi Automobile; For example, 2610 natural gas trucks have been developed from oil, with a year-on-year decrease of 61% and a stable market share of 25.0%; Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. quickly rose to the top with small tonnage trucks, producing 1664 vehicles in total, with a year-on-year growth of 8% and a share of 15.9%; FAW and heavy truck, as the old giants of natural gas trucks, produced 1207 and 907 vehicles respectively in the first July, with market shares of 11.6% and 8.7%

Valin ranks among the top five in the industry by virtue of recent large natural gas truck orders, with a current market share of 8.7%; Foton produced 552 vehicles in total, with a market share of 5.3%; Jac and beiben heavy truck produced 251 and 198 natural gas trucks in total each month, accounting for 2.4% and 1.9% respectively. In general, due to the decline of the natural gas truck market this year, everyone has moved to the medium and high-end and export segments, and the natural gas heavy truck market is no longer prosperous

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