The momentum of the hottest glass price rise will

Glass futures price: the rising momentum will be weakened

since the end of May, the glass futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range and soared to the area around 1450-1500 yuan/ton. The rise in spot prices in various regions has brought confidence to investors. At the same time, with the rise in spot prices, the inventory of glass manufacturers has been digested to a certain extent. However, the current demand is still in the off-season. In the later stage, with the rainy season approaching and the resumption of production capacity increasing, glass manufacturers may enter the accumulation stage again

the de stocking of manufacturers will slow down

due to the accumulation of inventory in the first quarter, the inventory of glass manufacturers reached a peak of 34.68 million weight boxes in early March. Although it was in the traditional off-season of demand at that time, glass spot manufacturers continued to raise prices with the advantage of profits, and the market price continued to hit a new high since 2011. Until the beginning of April, due to the insufficient demand for new orders, the manufacturer's willingness to support prices weakened, so as to increase the delivery. It is worth noting that since then, the delivery volume has not increased significantly due to the manufacturer's price reduction. In late May, the domestic glass inventory even rose to the high level of 3419 weight boxes again. The recent slight rise in market prices in many places has accelerated the destocking of flat glass. As of mid June, the inventory of glass manufacturers was the lowest since the Spring Festival, down 2.16 million weight boxes from the peak this year

in the glass industry chain, the scale of production enterprises is relatively large, the distribution is relatively concentrated, and they have a strong voice. The reason why the manufacturer's price increase and de stocking are smooth is not unrelated to the market psychology. Most downstream enterprises buy up but not down. Under the general rise of spot prices in various regions and the effect of the upcoming rainy season, downstream enterprises accelerate the pace of procurement, accelerating the recent inventory decline. However, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the glass production and sales rate has fallen, and traders are expected to slow down the pace of procurement, mainly to reduce their own inventory. The de stocking speed of glass manufacturers will also slow down, which does not rule out the recurrence of phased inventory accumulation

production capacity to form supply

under the current background, it is difficult to approve new production capacity, but the profit level of flat glass manufacturers is good, which significantly accelerates the pace of production capacity resumption. Since this year, a total of 6 domestic production lines have been cold repaired, and 10 float glass production lines have resumed production, with a net increase in production capacity of 34.5 million weight boxes, an increase of 550 tons compared with the same period last year

it is understood that at the end of June and early July, Qinhuangdao Yaohua production line, Benxi Fuyao line and Shandong Dezhou Kaisheng Jinghua production line will successively ignite kilns. Coupled with the centralized production increase in Central China in the third quarter, it is expected that the coating has reliable fire resistance, light weight (dry density of 51 kg per cubic meter for many worldwide customers), simple structure Long resistance to hydrocarbon fire (the coating thickness of 23mm is still in the period, and there is no doubt that the supply of glass will increase in the later stage. Although three of the production lines that have resumed production at present come from different cities in Hebei, the development of high-end technology of blow molding machines and others are in different provinces in the southern region, and the influence of new capacity supply is relatively dispersed, but in the context of real estate regulation, poor demand follow-up and loose supply will suppress the price of glass.

to sum up, with the rise of spot price of glass, in the near future The price focus is also constantly climbing the value rise that has not been recovered, but with the completion of the glass futures price to subsidize the water market, the momentum of the late rise will be weakened. We believe that the current market is still in the low season of seasonal demand. In the next one to two weeks, the arrival of the rainy season in the southern market will not be conducive to the delivery of glass, and the construction of downstream buildings will also be affected. The benign de stocking of glass needs to be driven by the terminal real estate